Indonesian growth without interrogation jumps by 5.12%and defies weak loans

The gross domestic product in three months until June increased by 5.12% of the year ago, the Nation’s Statistical Office announced on Tuesday. According to a median estimated in the Bloomberg survey, this defeated expectations of slowing to 4.8%. Rupiah changed a little to 16.384 to the dollar, while the shares increased an increase to 1% after data.

We surprised the economists. In addition to the pandemic, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, the inconsistencies between forecasts and real data were the largest sinet of the first of 2014.

“I doubt whether the growth of investment will be suffered in the second half of the year,” said Ahmad Mikail Zaini, chief economist of PT Suckor Sekuritas in Jakarta, and in June fry the slowdown of loans and contraction in direct investment of foreign foreign.

On the other hand, the Bank of Danamon Indonesia Economist Hosianna Evalsion Situmorang said that the data of the third quarter “could continue this improvement” due to government stimulus; Expenditure on free school meals and other projects; supporting monetary policy; and resistant agricultural production.

Hrubo training with fixed capital gained 6.99%in the second quarter, fast pace in four years, due to the development of infrastructure and expenditure on machines, BPS said.

However, there are also questions about statistics boundability.

“We don’t have much fait in the data,” Capital Economics said after postponement after the announcement. “We have long been concerned with concerns about GDP data in Indonesia. Indonesia has set off before pandemia for almost six years when official GDP growth has barely moved from 5% y/y.

Private consumption, which represents more than half of the country’s GDP, pink 4.97%.

“This is remodeling below 5.0% of the decade before the Pandemic-Allon consumers Covi-19, which remains cautious,” Tamara wrote Henderson in the Bloomberg Economics report and predicts another quarterly interest rates in the current quarter.

In fact, a massive nurse of jobs was lost in the textiles and other industries, as Chinese exporters threw moods in the nation of 280 million people. The US impossible from the hard tariffs could contribute to the pressure on Beijing to find new markets.

The large economy of Southeast Asia has expanded by 4.04%, we have a quarterly foundation, which is more than 3.69% of economic expansion forecasts. The export increased by 10.67%, which helped the anterior conscience before growing American tariffs, which were reduced to 19% of the endangered 32% for Indonesia.

However, external risks persist due to the deteriorated trade wars and a slower global economy that could dampen the momentum of domestic demand and trade in the future. Higher tariffs for exports to the US will come into force on August 7.

Government expenditures dropped by 0.33% in the second quarter of the previous year, in the middle of President Prabo Suffice’s efforts to transform some state expenditure for programs, including free school lunches.

Prabowo is ready to reveal government expenditure plans for 2026 in its first budget speech on August 15, along with the aim of economic growth in the year. The government has already reduced GDP growth outlook to 4.7%-5%, 5.2%of the initial forecast, and said more tax incentives were being prepared by the end of the year.

There is also more money support. Sales of September Indonesia Bank reduced its key interest rate by 100 basis points and undertook to further reduce to promote economic growth and increase banks of banks that dropped to a two -year minimum in June.

“The stronger print than scheduled printing in Indonesia in the second quarter of growth, set in investment and exports,” wrote Bloomberg’s Henderson. “The impact of higher American tariffs has to land yet. If fees will grow.”