JP Morgan report predicts BTC at $170,000 within 12 months

While Bitcoin just dropped below $100,000, JP Morgan is re-opening the debate over the valuation of the flagship asset. In a document published on Wednesday, the US bank estimates that BTC is significantly undervalued compared to gold. In his eyes, the fair price of Bitcoin would be around $170,000. This analysis revives the debate about the true valuation of the asset in the context of increased volatility and a direction-seeking market.

JP Morgan Sees Bitcoin Undervalued Against Gold: Towards $170,000 Potential?

In a note to clients on Wednesday, November 6th, JP Morgan surprised the market with a bold projection. According to a volatility-based benchmarking approach, Bitcoin would be significantly undervalued compared to gold, despite the correlation reaching 0.85.

Specifically, the bank explains that the BTC/Gold volatility ratio has dropped to 1.8, meaning that Bitcoin is considered 1.8 times riskier than gold. Applying this ratio to the relative valuation of the two assets, analysts believe there is significant mechanical room for BTC to move forward.

“Considering this ratio, which implies that Bitcoin currently consumes 1.8 times more venture capital than gold, mechanically, Bitcoin’s $2.1 trillion market cap is expected to grow by nearly 67%, implying a theoretical price close to $170,000.”we can read in the report.

This analysis is based on bank-specific quantitative methodology and market dynamics among so-called safe assets. In support of its reasoning, JP Morgan highlights several observations:

• Gold’s historic rally in October led to an increase in its own volatility, making it temporarily riskier than usual;

• The BTC/Gold Volatility Ratio, which has fallen to 1.8, makes Bitcoin look relatively more stable than expected in light of gold’s performance;

• BTC’s risk-adjusted valuation should theoretically reflect this momentum, i.e. a projected target of $170,000 within 6 to 12 months;

• The model used is based on a mechanistic approach, without integrating speculative or narrative elements around Bitcoin, which according to JP Morgan strengthens the robustness of this estimate.

For the US bank, this configuration creates a window of strategic opportunity for investors seeking uncorrelated and rationally priced assets.

Different perspectives: when other players limit their ambitions

In the face of this optimistic reading, several market players present a completely different diagnosis. On the same day the JP Morgan report was released, Bitcoin fell below $100,000 and broke major psychological support for the first time in four months.

This decline is interpreted by some as a signal of continued vulnerability. In the process, Galaxy Digital announced a downward revision to its price projections for BTC at the end of the year, lowering its target from $185,000 to $120,000.

To justify this adjustment, the firm cites several factors: ongoing macroeconomic pressure, especially trade tensions and tariff policies, as well as the crash on October 10, which is considered the largest liquidation episode in 24 hours in the history of cryptocurrencies.

Adding to this is some disturbing data: according to Galaxy, almost 400,000 BTC were dumped into the market by whales in October, which helped increase the selling pressure. This movement of capital is part of a general trend of relocation of institutional investors, who now appear to be diversifying their exposures towards other assets or competing themes.

“Bitcoin has entered a new phase, which we call the Maturity Era” explains Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy. He believes that ETFs, by absorbing a growing share of liquidity, are now slowing the rate of growth.

Lowering my BTC EOY bull target to $120k (previously $185k) 👀

just sent this message to clients

distribution of whales, non-BTC investments, treasury company of Malaysia and other factors contributed to the headwinds of BTC on the 25th.

(of course, the long-term future is still bullish) pic.twitter.com/2aj1eoJlno

— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) November 5, 2025

This difference in interpretation between JP Morgan and other institutions such as Galaxy illustrates the current complexity of the cryptocurrency market. While some see this as a medium-term structural opportunity, others favor a more cautious reading based on immediate market data. The challenge for investors now lies in the trade-off between these two narratives: an undervalued asset poised for recovery and a market in transition to moderate growth. In all cases, these differences highlight that the price of BTC is no longer limited to the logic of a bubble or speculative exuberance: it becomes an asset analyzed, compared and verified using classical financial methodologies.

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The comments and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and should not be considered investment advice. Before making any investment decision, do your own research.